By Raoul Lowery Contreras
Donald Trump’s convicted fixer, former lawyer and self-described Trump “thug” Michael Cohen quotes his friend and boss in his book “Disloyal” as saying “I will never get the Hispanic vote…Like the Blacks, they are too stupid to vote for Trump. They’re not my people.”
Trump was right in 2016. Actual Hispanic vote counts that year signal November 3rd because those vote counts showed Trump was successful in convincing only 20% of Hispanics outside Florida to vote for him. Mexican American vote counts showed Trump was fortunate to get 15% in the Rio Grande Valley of Texas and Los Angeles.
2016 real votes exposed “exit” polls that showed Trump receiving 28% Hispanic votes as false and, in fact, ludicrous, put together by people who have no clue about Hispanic voters. Exit polls of Hispanics have proven to be worthless.
George W. Bush received somewhere between 40 and 44% of the Hispanic vote in 2004. Early exit polls showed John Kerry defeating him.
Among the 61 million Hispanics in the U.S. there are legions of educated Hispanic men and women that study the community, because of that, we finally have surveys that are legitimate and don’t rely on “professionals” who know nothing Hispanic.
A group of Hispanic Phds – Latino Decisions — know how to survey and, specifically, know Hispanics; they are now producing survey work that is valuable in measuring Hispanic attitudes and political conclusions that they use to vote for President.
The firm did a survey for the Latino Community Foundation, the California Election Survey for the November 2020 election. While there might be variations with the Mexican American populations of Texas, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada and the almost two million Mexican Americans in Chicago, these results are predictive of the attitudes and how Hispanics will vote on November 3rd. 80% of Hispanics in California are Mexican Americans, more in Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, Colorado and Chicago.
California survey of Latino registered voters, n=1,200 sample +/- 2.8% Margin of error, out of field: August 24, 2020 by Latino Decisions; my comments are italicized…
Q1. “Thinking ahead to the November 2020 Presidential election, what would you say the chances are that you will vote in the presidential election..?” Answer– Almost certain will vote 73%; Probably will vote 11%; Probably will NOT vote 3%; Certain that I won’t vote 5% — Registered Hispanics will heavily vote, maybe 84% or more;
Q2. “Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are headed in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track?
Right direction 25%; Wrong track 71%; Don’t know 4%;” Wrong track is a killer 71%, impossible for Trump to overcome that, indicates 3 to one vote against Trump, maybe more…
Q3. “Please tell me if you have a very favorable view, somewhat favorable view, somewhat unfavorable view, or very unfavorable view of President Donald Trump; Answer–TOTAL FAVORABLE 25% TOTAL UNFAVORABLE 72%; Haven’t heard / Don’t know 3%;” 72% unfavorable indicates a landslide against Trump among Hispanics, at least three to one…
Q5. “Please tell me if you have a very favorable view, somewhat favorable view, somewhat unfavorable view, or very unfavorable view of Former Vice President Joe Biden; TOTAL FAVORABLE 65% TOTAL UNFAVORABLE 28%” — indicates three to one or more for Biden.
Q12. “On the whole, what are the most important issues that you want for the next President and Congress to address? Answers: Responding to Coronavirus 47%; Lowering the costs of health 25%; % Improving wages and incomes 21% Unemployment / Creating jobs 22%; Protecting immigrant rights 16%”: Notice crime or “law and order,” Trump’s main issue now isn’t mentioned with 72% health related, then 43% economic issues…
Q14. “Thinking about the 2020 presidential election, do you plan to vote for the Republican Donald Trump or for the Democrat Joe Biden? Answer: TOTAL TRUMP 19%; TOTAL BIDEN 68%; Someone else 2%; Undecided 11%”; Looks like Biden can carry as high as 80% of Presidential votes; he will probably carry 75-80%, like Trump says, Hispanics “are too stupid to vote for him…They aren’t (his) people…”
Interesting question in light of documented California police department bad behavior towards Hispanics and Blacks. Q23. “Please indicate if you agree or disagree to defund police departments; TOTAL AGREE 51%; TOTAL DISAGREE 45%; Don’t know 4%” – Considering Hispanic experiences in California with police peccadillos over the years, this response is very close and interesting…
This survey reflects how California Hispanics felt on August 24. However, it indicates how California Hispanics (and by inference) their paisanos west and south of Chicago will vote heavily against Trump, even in Arizona. Trump carried Arizona in 2016, if he loses Arizona, he loses the election.
Contreras is the host of THE CONTRERAS REPORT – AN HISPANIC VIEW OF THE USA and THE CONTRERAS REPORT – BUSINESS MEXICO, both podcasts available at your favorite Podcast venue…Apple, Spotify, etc.