By Kevin Baskins, Des Moines Register
Two demographic lines in Iowa may soon intersect, meaning the state could start experiencing declines in population, according to Ben Murray of the Common Sense Institute of Iowa.
The institute’s recently published study of Iowa’s demographic trends using 2025 U.S. Census data found Iowa’s birth rates are decreasing and death rates are increasing. In addition, the migration of new residents into the state, both domestic and international, is falling.
The most troubling finding for Murray is that Iowa’s natural growth ― the number of births exceeding deaths ― is rapidly declining.
Murray said the death numbers will climb as the largest generation, the baby boomers born from 1946 to the early 1960s, approach the average life expectancy.
If births, deaths, and migration and immigration are the three legs of a stool representing population, negative net births will tip the balance away from slow growth to decline. Even the rapid growth of metro Iowa City and the Des Moines metro ― the fastest among major metros in the Midwest ― can’t make up the difference.
“Sooner or later, I’m like, wow, in the next few years, maybe a decade at most, we’re going to be losing net population from that leg of the stool,” Murray said.
The census figures show Iowa’s population increased by 7,882 residents in 2025, the third-largest annual gain since 2018. But it was well below both the 35-year average of 10,250 and the five-year average of 9,450.
Provided by Mark Tauschek
Net births (births minus deaths) totaled 2,949 in 2025, down from 3,500 in 2024 and about 71% below the 1991-2019 average. Overall births dropped from about an annual average of 41,000 in the mid-2000s to 36,470 in 2025 while deaths rose from about 27,000 to 33,521 in the same period, according to the study’s findings.
Migration could offset losses, but that’s down, too
If Iowa ceases to grow through net births, that leaves migration ― people moving to Iowa from other states or nations ― as the primary driver of population growth.
The study’s numbers aren’t bullish on those components, either. It noted that growth decelerated following pandemic-related highs, spurred primarily by a significant drop in international migration.
Iowa lost 970 residents to other states in 2025, marking the second year departures exceeded arrivals and worsening from 2024’s loss of 427, though it was still below the 35-year average of 2,900 annual losses.
But in a year that saw massive federal efforts to stem undocumented immigration to the United States, it was the decline of foreign migration that had the most significant impact on Iowa’s population, the study found.
Net foreign migration plunged to 5,903 in 2025 from 12,700 in 2024, a 53.5% drop, according to the study.
Photo provided by Iowa State University
“The point is our population growth comes from immigrants now, and it’s going to be increasingly that way,” Murray said.
Sandra Burke, a demographics researcher at Iowa State University, agreed that immigration is key to increasing Iowa’s population, both in terms of new arrivals and keeping up its birth rate.
“Immigrant groups tend to have higher fertility rates than overall population so when you keep those folks out, you also keep their future children out,” Burke said. “That is a thing, and it’s a national thing. I don’t know how we quite counteract all that.”
Burke’s past research shows the primary reason for people relocating is economic opportunity. But for immigrants, that’s increasingly counterbalanced by higher barriers to entry.
“And some of the hostility that you see nationwide is not going to help Iowa in that regard,” she said.
“I would say that immigrant groups are pretty worried and scared in some ways. It’s not just Iowa, but being in the U.S. and how you diffuse that? I think that’s going to take a while,” she said.
A Common Sense Institute study suggests Iowa’s net birth rate soon may no longer exceed population losses as people die or move away. Kelsey Kremer/The Register.
Maintaining workforce and tax base could become even harder
The combination of those factors mixes up a recipe for an eventual decline in Iowa’s population, a scenario that could ripple through the state’s economy in various ways, said Murray, the director of policy and research for CSI.
CSI’s modeling estimates that this migration slowdown resulted in 15,463 fewer residents, 8,546 fewer labor force participants, and $231 million less in gross state product for Iowa in 2025.
Murray said the clouds hovering over Iowa’s demographic numbers translate into two potential challenges for the state: maintaining workforce and tax base.
“If we don’t have a workforce, you know, companies can’t operate here and then you start to see the problems for Iowa’s economy,” Murray said.
From a tax base standpoint, it means fewer workers supporting the cost of services for an aging baby boomer generation and schools for younger Iowans not yet in the workforce.
“The demographics don’t add up to support our aging population,” Murray said.
Across the Midwest, Iowa’s population growth for the first half of the 2020s falls in the lower half. Murray said there is a worst-case scenario lurking for the state when the next full U.S. Census takes place in five years: “that those net births have turned negative because, I think, once they turn negative, you cannot quickly or easily reverse that trend. Domestic migration and immigration can drastically change from one year to the next, hypothetically. Net births can’t.”
He said the Common Sense Institute hopes demographic research provides useful information for state policymakers, and that they make decisions with open minds about the data available.
“I get it there are all kinds of political pressures in the realm of politics and there are considerations that are squarely economic considerations that people care about,” he said. “But when you’re considering all these other things, anything that might affect the attractiveness of the state of Iowa for people potentially coming in here, any policies that affect any of those things, look at this data. Recognize it for what it is. Don’t fight the facts and please take it into consideration when you’re considering policies.”
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